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Prediction for CME (2024-02-01T08:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-01T08:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28924/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Partial halo CME to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source centered around N20E05. A C3.0 flare peaked at 2024-02-01T07:43Z, accompanied by dimming and post-eruptive arcades in STEREO A EUV 195 and SDO AIA 193, but eruption is partially obscured by an eclipse in SDO From 2024-02-01T06:42Z to 2024-02-01T07:51Z. Filamentary material seen lifting off in GOES SUVI 304, opening field lines are seen in SDO AIA 171, and post-eruptive arcades are best visible in SDO AIA 94. Possible arrival signature is unclear. The complex signature is characterized by gradual increases in Btotal (to 11nT) and solar wind speed (to 500 km/s), as well as rapid fluctuations of magnetic field components indicative of a high speed stream. It is possible that this signature includes a CME arrival, as it also encompasses a drop in temperature and density over 2024-02-05. The signature will be revisited once Level 1 solar wind data is available.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-04T02:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-03T21:52Z (-5.31h, +6.05h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/02/01 07:50Z
Plane of Sky 1: 11:10Z; 15Rsun; NNE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 12:50Z; 15Rsun; SSW Direction
POS Difference: 1:40
POS Midpoint: 12:00Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 4:10

Numeric View/Impact Type: 2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~14.89
Travel Time: ~14.89 * 4:10 = 62:02

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-02-03T21:52Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 2 Hours
 - Travel Time: 5%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5

 * Preliminary Forecast

Lead Time: 57.85 hour(s)
Difference: 4.72 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-02-01T16:44Z

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